The attractiveness of a certain country/region as trade partner for the EU not relates to the availability of biomass, but also to the political stability and local governance, the investment climate and potential projections to use the available biomass for domestic applications (energy and other). Also sustainability governance for forestry or agriculture are considered as this will be an important requirement from EU side for potentially imported biomass. The table below gives an overview of the main strengths and weaknesses of Kenya as a trade partner for biomass with the EU.

SWOT principle

Indicator/criterion

Strength

Weakness

Opportunity

Threat

Mobilisation opportunities

Options to mobilise the production/ harvest of biomass for exports

 

There are agricultural potentials but limited by local uses and infrastructure from production areas to export harbour.

Governmental policies to boost production/ harvest of agriculture, but no clear indication for export

Plan to upgrade infrastructure in the medium future so that more production areas could be reached

Low agricultural yield and deforestation affect mobilisation potentials

Security of supply

Stable amount of exportable biomass available over next 10 years

 

There are agricultural potentials but limited by local uses and infrastructure from production areas to export harbour.

- Crop Act 2013 aims to improve yields and increase production volumes of the different crops, therefore leads to more residue availability and implies higher potential for export.

- Forests Bill 2014 aims to increase timber yield and subsequently more residues available than current situation.

- Low agricultural yield, deforestation and local uses are the main affecting factors to security of supply.

- No clear governmental/ local initiatives for biomass export

Cost of biomass in ARA ports

€/ton DM and €/GJ

Low costs (€6.36/GJ) in regions near exporting harbour

High costs (€12/GJ) in remote areas far from exporting harbour

There are opportunities to lower total costs thanks to economy of scale of biomass mobilisation but due to low potentials, the price decline is not very competitive. Forest Bill 2014 also aims to ensure least distortion of market price

No clear information on how local use may have impacts on exportable biomass

Environmental issues (air, water, biodiversity and soil) are not negatively affected

Feedstock production does not affect negatively local environmental conditions

 

There exists governmental guidance to environmental protection, but best practices are not implemented

Forest Bill 2014  aims to implement sustainable management and ensures least deterioration of Kenyan's lifes.

Water shortage and soil erosion due to over-exploitation in agricultural sector.

- Deforestation is also a big constraint, limiting woody biomass availability

Life cycle GHG emissions incl. direct LUC

GHG LCA assessment in agreement with IPCC guidelines along the supply chain

Agricultural and forest residues indicate low GHG emissions in biomass value chains compared with emissions of fossil fuels (under 75% EU cut off reference emissions)

 

 

 

Social issues are not negatively affected

Feedstock production does not affect negatively local social conditions

Governmental policies for agricultural and forestry sectors are developed but how they will effectively be implemented needs to be seen

Some agricultural crop yields are projected to decline in the future, therefore living conditions of farmers will be likely affected in the short term future

The rural population depends on fuel wood for cooking, additional use of biomass for energy might create competition

Governmental policies for agricultural and forestry sectors are developed but how they will effectively be implemented need to be seen

Yield decrease may lead to financial deficit to farmers

Governance

Existence of policies and regulations to regulate feedstock production. Implementation/Enforcement of national, local regulations as well as relevant international convention

 

 

Forests Bill 2014 and Crops Act 2013 will come into force

Policies may not be affectively translated into action plans